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Final report RSE 17001243

Project SCENARI: Energy and Power Systems Scenario Analysis. Synthesis Report of 2016

Analysis of the new European Climate Energy targets (2030) by way of national energy scenario and model. Analysis of the interactions between environment and the electricity system: effects of climate change on emissions and on energy demand, monitoring of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, interactions between the electricity system and water systems and the valorisation of renewable sources.

The project “Analisi e scenari elettrici energetici e ambientali” as part of the framework “Governo, gestione e sviluppo del sistema elettrico nazionale interconnesso e integrazione dei mercati”, deals with the development of electric and energy national system scenario and of the interactions between the energy system and environment. The support to the government of the national energy system is certainly the most important goal of the project. It was first of all conducted through several activities on evaluations on the process of defining the 2030 European climate and energy objectives for Italy by providing results, expertise and tools for assessing the impacts of policy decisions. In addition to support the institutions RSE has conducted specific analysis on the evolution of the power and energy system. In particular, every year, based on the latest available data, the evolution scenario of electricity consumption in Italy up to 2050 is keep updated. RSE has also a model of the national energy system, MONET, whose development continues every year with Adding new features and improving the existing structure. The tool is used to analyse the evolution of the Italian energy system in different scenarios. This report presents the results of the comparison between three different scenarios: one reference scenario and two policy scenarios that reach the new targets set out in the 2030 Energy Climate Package. Moreover, since 2014, a new yearly activity has started with the aim of providing a detailed analysis of the various items of the electricity bill. This year the second update is reported on the basis of 2015 data.

Due to the long horizon of the energy scenarios, we must to consider the climate change effects. In the project deals the impact on heating / cooling demand (in terms of degree days) and on rainfall with particular focus on the extreme events. The future trend of heating and cooling degree-days have been calculating through different methodologies. This activity has been set up considering also the interest for these indexes discussed in a working group in which RSE was involved, established by Presidenza del Consiglio to provide a data-set to be used in national energy action plan. The Med- CORDEX models have been used for the analysis of the likely changes in the precipitations regimes.

The atmospheric concentration monitoring activity for CO2 and other greenhouse gases (CH4 and O3) has continued at the Plateau Rosa station, a laboratory which has been operative for more than 28 years.

The station, which belongs to the international monitoring network of the Global Atmosphere Watch, provides data to the Wolrd Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases. The growth rate of the longest continuous historical series represented by CO2 data is equal to 2,02 ppm. The year 2016 has shown an increasing of the CO2 concentration very likely caused by the strong El Niño event occurred during the last two years (2015-2016). By comparing the global emission data with the average of the annual background CO2 concentrations we have detected a significant relationship between these two quantities that could allow to use the measurements of CO2 as a predictor of the global emissions.

Finally the water-energy nexus and the valorisation of renewable sources are faced. Results for the former consist in the application of the “water footprint” methodology to the power plant technologies (combined cycle gas turbines) paying attention to the water scarcity. For the valorisation of renewable sources, the web site SunRiSE (http://sunrise.rse-web.it/) has been developed with new layer to show the wind, rainfall, temperature and PV production forecasting. Furthermore the graphs of ground radiation measurements taken at the RSE headquarters in Milan have been added.

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