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Paper RSE 14002978

A possible evolution of long term scenario of electricity consumption in Italy

Paper

Convegno Annuale AEIT 2014 Dalla ricerca all'impresa: necessità di un trasferimento più efficace Energia, Comunicazione, Informazione, Economia 18-19 , Settembre-2014.

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S. Vitale (RSE SpA)

EVOLRETE 2014 - Evolution and planning of the national electric system

The paper describes an evolving scenario, up to 2050 in electricity consumption by end use in the areas residential, industrial, tertiary, transportation and agriculture through the formulation of development assumptions of the major socio-economic drivers and end-use electrical technologies.

This paper describes the activity developed for defining a scenario of use of electricity in end-use for Industry, Residential, Services, Transport and Agriculture sectors. The period taken into consideration covers forty years with horizon year 2050. The scenario includes the forecast for services demand and its involved technologies. To develop this scenario the main macroeconomic indicators used were the added values, the electrical penetration and the demographics data.

Taking into account their latest growth forecasts and appropriate hypothesis of technological evolution, it were estimated the services demand and the resulting consumption. The results emphasize the effects of the present economical crisis on electricity consumption forecast. A comparison with other scenarios available form other institutions is also carried out.

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