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Article RSE 14008784

The impact on the national electro-energy system of the European climate and energy policy to 2030

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Nuova Energia ISSN 2036-8380, pp. 62-65, Novembre/Dicembre-2014.

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F. Lanati (RSE SpA), M. Benini (RSE SpA) , A. Gelmini (RSE SpA)

EVOLRETE 2014 - Evolution and planning of the national electric system

We present the results of an impact analysis of the Package European Climate Energy 2030 on the energy system and the national electricity system, carried out in the hypothesis that for Italy should be assigned a target of reducing CO2 emissions by 36% compared to 2005.

RSE and Enea carried out a study to assess the impact of the 2030 climate and energy policy proposed by the European Commission and recently confirmed by the Council. The assessment has been carried out by developing a scenario for the Italian energy system that in 2030 foresees a 36% reduction of CO2 emissions compared to 2005 levels, in line with the EU target of -40% compared to 1990. In this scenario the main contributions to CO2 emissions reduction are provided by power generation (51% reduction compared to 2005), by the tertiary sector (42% reduction) and by the transport sector (23% reduction).

RSE focused on the impact assessment on the power system, that in this scenario is characterized by a significant development of renewable sources (2030 production more than 50% higher than 2013) and by a limited growth of electricity demand (similar to 2007 levels). The simulations of power system operation showed significant criticalities concerning network congestion, excess of renewable generation in some hours and a lack of flexibility of the generation set to ensure the security of the system.

Moreover, the increasing penetration of distributed generation in distribution networks requires their transformation into “smart grids”. The main interventions to tackle with such criticalities and the related costs are: full implementation of Terna’s 2013 Network Development Plan (7.9 bn€) plus further transmission capacity expansions (2.1 bn€), development and improvement of distribution networks (9 bn€), installation of storage systems (1.8 bn€) and flexibilization of existing Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (450 mln€). In this scenario, the average electricity cost for end users grows from 16.1 c€/kWh in 2013 to 19 c€/kWh in 2030, including the cost for additional incentives to renewable sources that will not reach the market parity within 2030.

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