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Presentation RSE 15010265

The Italian power system evolution, from the current thermoelectric crisis to 2030 scenarios


Giornata raccolta Input per le previsioni energetiche 17, Dicembre-2015.

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A. Gelmini (RSE SpA) , S. Rossi (RSE SpA) , F. Lanati (RSE SpA)

SCENARI 2015 - Analysis and electrical scenarios, energy, environmental

The paper reports an analysis of the crisis of the thermoelectric sector, in the national system, with assessments for the medium and the long term (2030).

We present a review of the situation of the thermal power production which starting from the analisys of the recent years (till 2015), along with predictive analysis for the medium term and concluding with a comparison of the long-term scenarios (2030).

In the first part we highlight the critical issues that are facing Italians thermal power plants (preliminary analysis to the 2015), especially for the combined cycle gas turbines. We show how the electricity market does not guarantee a sufficient remuneration to cover operation costs and capital costs and that the most of the economical margins (respect to the variable costs) come from the markets for the dispatching services.

For the medium term the real source of uncertainty for thermal generation will be climate changes for the impact on the demand and on the production of non-renewable sources. For the long term, we evaluate different scenarios that show how the situation of the thermoelectric is not predetermined (2030), but, will be greatly affected by the new policy choices for the energy system.

Italian Presentation

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