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Presentation RSE 16005599

Cambiamenti Climatici: scenari per l'Italia

Presentation

Cambiamenti Climatici e Infrastrutture Critiche 20 , Giugno-2016.

Request Document (13.12 MB, .pdf)

P. Faggian (RSE SpA)

SCENARI 2016 - Analysis and electrical scenarios, energy, environmental

Observed data and future climate projections depict significant climatic changes over Mediterranean Region, making this region especially vulnerable to climate impacts, because of the combined effects of anthropogenic stress and natural resources.There is the risk of serious impacts on sectors like health, energy, agriculture, water resources and tourism for Italy, too, as the projections highlight an increasing of hot days and heavy precipitations events.

The meaning of “Climate” is explained. Then different examples of “Climatic Changes” observed in the world are presented. The references are the last publication of IPCC (AR5) and the recent European Environment Agency report (2015) assessing the decade 2005-2014 was the warmest respect the pre-industrial period, with a temperature increasing of 0.80-0.84 °C and with record values just in the last years. Such phenomenon is just more emphasized in Europe, characterized in the last decade by a temperature increasing over land of 1.5 °C.

In particular, observed data and future climate projections depict significant climatic changes over Mediterranean Region, making this region especially vulnerable to climate impacts, because of the combined effects of anthropogenic stress and natural resources. Projections over Italy show a pronounced increasing of hot days and drought periods and advise an increasing of heavy precipitations over coastal area, depending on the season. Such phenomena are not to be neglected because they can have serious impacts on important sectors like health, energy, agriculture, water resources and tourism.

The most critical situations are expected in summer with high temperature together with absence of precipitations. These conditions, beyond causing illness for population, may represent critical situations for the safety in electric supply when peaks of energy demand for cooling may occur in conjunction with limited functioning of hydroelectric and thermal power plants because of water shortage.

The Paris agreement, in which 195 countries committed to limiting the temperature increase to well below 2C, set a new standard for dealing with complex global warming. To achieve such goals it is urgent to undertake more weighty policies and measure by Governments, regional and local governances, with smart, renewable and sustainable energy solutions, where Sciences and Technology are called to give their contribution.

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