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Article RSE 16005603

Un problema assai complesso; ma non incomprensibile

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Nuova Energia ISSN 2036-8380, vol. 3, pp. 86-87, Maggio/Giugno-2016.

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P. Faggian (RSE SpA)

SCENARI 2016 - Analysis and electrical scenarios, energy, environmental

Different future climate descriptions, provided by climatic models under different hypothesis of green-house emissions, are called “scenarios” (or “projections”) and not “forecast” because they are probabilistic predictions with an intrinsic level of uncertainty, because of the non-liner and stochastic aspects of the climate system.

Different future climate descriptions, provided by climatic models under different hypothesis of green-house emissions, are called “scenarios” (i.e. “projections”) and not “forecast” because they are probabilistic predictions with an intrinsic level of uncertainty.

The System Earth-Ocean-Atmosphere is characterized by non-linear processes and it is described by fluid-dynamic and thermo-dynamic laws, through non-liner models strongly dependent from initial conditions. From different initial condition different results are obtained. An ensemble of such results let to know for each prediction its degree of certainty. Moreover, several runs let to know the consistency of the results, depending the agreements of the different simulations.

According IPCC suggestion, two metrics are used for communicating the degree of certainty in key findings: confidence, expressed qualitatively, based on the consistency of evidence and the degree of agreement; probability, quantified measures of uncertainty in a finding based on statistical analysis of observations or model.

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