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Poster RSE 16081046

Changes in precipitation extremes over Italian peninsula and its impacts on the Electric system

Poster

SICS Annual Conference of the Italian Society for Climate Sciences - Climate challenges and solutions under the 2°C target, Cagliari, 19-20, Ottobre-2016.

Request Document (3.10 MB, .pdf)

R. Bonanno (RSE SpA), P. Faggian (RSE SpA)

SCENARI 2016 - Analysis and electrical scenarios, energy, environmental

The aim of this work is to assess potential changes in precipitation extremes that would have serious impacts over Mediterranean basin with focus over Italian peninsula.

The aim of this work is to assess potential changes in precipitation extremes that would have serious impacts over Mediterranean basin with focus over Italian peninsula.Two future scenarios have been elaborated (one at medium-term 2021-2050 and the other at long-term 2071-2100) by analyzing Med-CORDEX simulations in two emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 at the horizontal resolution of 0.44° (about 50 km).

Model values have been bias-corrected by using E-OBS values as reference data and by applying a nonparametric transformation based on quantile-quantile mapping.A subset of standard indices defined by the World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) was considered.

The results highlight a likely increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events. An increase of the risk for electric failures is expected. In particular the likely reduction of precipitations and the increase of the length of dry spells lead to a decrease of hydroelectric power generation and to a scarcity of water for the cooling of thermoelectric power plants.

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