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Project SCENARI 2015

Analysis and electrical scenarios, energy, environmental

Power System Research

2015-2015

Alberto Gelmini

The project “Energy and environment scenario analysis” is part of the wider theme “Governance, management and development of the interconnected national electricity system and market integration”. It deals with the development of electric and energy national system scenario and of the interactions between the energy system and environment.

The project “Energy and environment scenario analysis” is part of the wider theme “Governance, management and development of the interconnected national electricity system and market integration”. It deals with the development of electric and energy national system scenario and of the interactions between the energy system and environment.

The main objective of the Italian energy system analysis is to provide a preliminary evaluation about the new European program 2030 "Climate and Energy" supporting the Italian Governement from a scientific technical point of view in the discussions with the European Commission in view of future engagements. For these activities the energy model “MONET” has been used.

A Reference Scenario (i.e. with current policies) at 2050 of the Italian energy system has been produced with a focus at 2030. The outcomes show that without further new efforts (new regulation and new investments) respect to those provided for the 2020 target, the energy efficiency improvements of the technologies and the increase of the renewables, are not able to achieve further CO2 reductions of emissions after the 2020.

Other results are the development and the update of the MONET energy model, the analysis of the final cost components of the electricity bill and scenario of national electric load worked out by a specific methodology.

Respect to the interactions between energy scenarios and environment, the influence of global climate change on the Italian pwer system has been continued by adding the study of risks of wood fires. Some climatic scenarios derived from high resolution models of the data-sets ENSEMBLES e Med-CORDEX have been analysed and the Fire Weather Index calculated. The results indicate for the next decades an increase of the conditions favourable to the fire ignition in summer with serious risks for the electric infrastructures.

The atmospheric concentration monitoring activity for CO2 and other greenhouse gases (CH4 and O3) has continued at the Plateau Rosa station, a laboratory which has been operative for more than 25 years. The station, which belongs to the international monitoring network of the Global Atmosphere Watch and provides data to the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases, detected in 2015 a CO2 annual average background concentration over 400 ppm.

Finally first results on the water-energy nexus and the assessment of the strategic value of development of renewable sources are reported. A reference framework for the nation-wide evaluation of water needs for the power system and the power consumption evaluation of the aqueducts was provided.

For the goal of the current activity regarding the strategic value of renewables is to promote a new energy model for RES development highlighting the potential of renewables as a social and economic growth vector. The goal will be to suggest sustainability criteria for preserving the integrity of local territorial assets, when RES infrastructures are built .