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Project SCENARI 2016

Analysis and electrical scenarios, energy, environmental

Power System Research

2016-2016

Alberto Gelmini

Analysis of the new European Climate Energy targets (2030) by way of national energy scenario and model. Analysis of the interactions between environment and the electricity system: effects of climate change on emissions and on energy demand, monitoring of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, interactions between the electricity system and water systems and the valorisation of renewable sources

The project “Analysis and electrical scenarios, energy, environmental” as part of the framework “Governo, gestione e sviluppo del sistema elettrico nazionale interconnesso e integrazione dei mercati”, deals with the development of electric and energy system scenario in Italy and with the interactions between the energy system and environment. The project aims at supporting the governance of the national energy system. The evaluation carried out to help defining the 2030 European climate and energy objectives set for Italy provided results, expertise and tools for assessing the impacts of policy decisions. Besides supporting the Institutions RSE has conducted specific analysis on the evolution of the power system and the energy at large. Based on the latest available data, we updated the scenario of electricity consumption in Italy up to 2050.. The model of the national energy system set up by RSE, MONET, has been continuously updated, adding new features and improving the existing structure. The tool is used to analyse the evolution of the Italian energy system in different scenarios. This report presents the results of the comparison between three different scenarios: one reference scenario and two policy scenarios, both designed to reach the new targets set out in the 2030 Energy Climate Package. Moreover, since 2014, a new yearly activity has started with the aim of providing a detailed analysis of the various items of the electricity bill. This year the second update has been issued on the basis of 2015 data.

Due to the long horizon of the energy scenarios, the effects of climate change must be considered. The project deals with the impact on heating / cooling demand (in terms of degree days) and on rainfall, with particular focus on extreme events. The future trend of heating and cooling degree-days has been calculated through different methodologies. This activity has been set up also as a contribution to a working group in which RSE was involved, established by Presidenza del Consiglio to provide a data-set to be used in national energy action plan. The Med-CORDEX models have been used for the analysis of the likely changes in the precipitations regimes.

The atmospheric concentration monitoring activity for CO2 and other greenhouse gases (CH4 and O3) has continued at the Plateau Rosa station, a remote laboratory which has been operative for more than 28 years. The station, which belongs to the international monitoring network of the Global Atmosphere Watch, provides data to the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases. The growth rate of the longest continuous historical series (CO2 data) is equal to 2.02 ppm per year. The CO2 concentration increased in 2016, very likely because of the strong El Niño event occurred during the last two years (2015-2016). By comparing the global emission data with the average of the annual background CO2 concentrations we have detected a significant relationship between these two quantities that could allow to use the measurements of CO2 as a predictor of the global emissions.

In connection with the water scarcity foreseen by models of climate change the water-energy nexus has been considered, by calculating the “water footprint” of power plant production (combined cycle gas turbines). For the valorisation of renewable sources, the web site SunRiSE (http://sunrise.rse-web.it/) has been developed with a new layer to show the wind, rainfall, temperature and PV production forecasts. Furthermore the graphs of ground radiation measurements taken at the RSE headquarters in Milan have been added.