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Demand evolution

RSE has developed a software tool (integrated in MATISSE) able to perform predictions on the evolution of electricity consumption depending on assigned scenarios regarding expected economic activity, the diffusion of technologies and their efficiency. The software is used to study the trend in electricity demand under different development hypotheses: the projection Business As Usual, which holds account of the natural trends of electrical intensity in the various production sectors, along with the more recent analyses that predict a likely slowing of short-term macroeconomic growth. Starting from this reference scenario, possible variants are explored linked on one hand to the stimulus actions of energy efficiency required to reach the objectives of reducing consumptions as expected from international agreements and, on the other hand, linked to the possible diffusion of the electric carrier in civil heating and the diffusion of electric vehicles. In the first case reference is made to electricity savings in 2016 in the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (refer to Directive 2006/32/EC), and to the well-known European objectives "20-20-20" for the year 2020. In the second case sustainability is studied concerning the highest electricity consumption due to the diffusion of electro-technologies with low primary energy consumption such as air conditioning heat pumps, or with lower environmental impact, as in the case of electric cars.

In relation to the impact of meteorological variables on electricity demand, RSE collaborates with TERNA to evaluate calculation methods, IT tools and the implementable models in order to develop tools that are able to make predictions by carefully modelling the effects of the most important meteorological variables.