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Presentation RSE 14009436

Electric demand and power system development at 2030

Presentation

Politiche ambientali e incertezze economiche: valutazioni di impatto sui consumi di energia in Italia al 2030 - GdL Analisi Energetiche e Petrolifere 18, Dicembre-2014.

A. Gelmini (RSE SpA) , F. Lanati (RSE SpA)

EVOLRETE 2014 - Evolution and planning of the national electric system

We present the results of an impact analysis of the Package European Climate Energy 2030 on the energy system and the national electricity system, carried out in the hypothesis that for Italy should be assigned a target of reducing CO2 emissions by 36% compared to 2005. In the second part is presented a scenario of evolution of electricity consumption in Italy with a time horizon to 2050.

RSE and Enea carried out a study to assess the impact of the 2030 climate and energy policy proposed by the European Commission and recently confirmed by the Council. The assessment has been carried out by developing a scenario for the Italian energy system that in 2030 foresees a 36% reduction of CO2 emissions compared to 2005 levels, in line with the EU target of -40% compared to 1990. RSE focused on the impact assessment on the power system, that in this scenario is characterized by a significant development of renewable sources (2030 production more than 50% higher than 2013) and by a limited growth of electricity demand (similar to 2007 levels).

The simulations of power system operation showed significant criticalities concerning network congestion, excess of renewable generation in some hours and a lack of flexibility of the generation set to ensure the security of the system. In the second part is presented a scenario of evolution of electricity consumption in Italy with a time horizon to 2050.

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