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Presentation RSE 14005148

Response of electricity demand to temperature and solar radiation in Italy


14th EMS Annual Meeting & 10th European Conference on Applied Climatology (ECAC) 6-10 , Ottobre-2014.

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S. Scapin (Collaboratore), F. Apadula (RSE SpA) , M. Brunetti (CNR-IAMC), M. Maugeri (CNR-IAMC)

EVOLRETE 2014 - Evolution and planning of the national electric system

A methodology to estimate the role of some meteorological variables on the demand for electricity in Italy is described.

The dependence of Italian daily electricity demand on cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation is investigated by means of a regression model applied to twelve consecutive two-year intervals in the 1990-2013 period. The model is based on deterministic components related to the weekly cyclical pattern of demand and to long-term demand changes and on weather-sensitive components related to cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation. The model establishes a strong contribution of cooling degree-days to the Italian electricity demand. This contribution shows a strong positive trend in the period considered. The contributions relative to the last 3 two-year periods are nearly constant, suggesting a possible slowing-down of the positive trend, which may be a consequence of the present day economic crisis. The projections of cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation under climate change scenarios will be presented.

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