{"id":192658,"date":"2024-08-28T15:16:01","date_gmt":"2024-08-28T13:16:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/pubblicazioni\/exploitation-of-a-new-short-term-multimodel-photovoltaic-power-forecasting-method-in-the-very-short-term-horizon-to-derive-a-multi-time-scale-forecasting-system\/"},"modified":"2024-08-31T00:31:03","modified_gmt":"2024-08-30T22:31:03","slug":"exploitation-of-a-new-short-term-multimodel-photovoltaic-power-forecasting-method-in-the-very-short-term-horizon-to-derive-a-multi-time-scale-forecasting-system","status":"publish","type":"pubblicazioni","link":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/publications\/exploitation-of-a-new-short-term-multimodel-photovoltaic-power-forecasting-method-in-the-very-short-term-horizon-to-derive-a-multi-time-scale-forecasting-system\/","title":{"rendered":"Exploitation of a New Short-Term Multimodel Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method in the Very Short-Term Horizon to Derive a Multi-Time Scale Forecasting System"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"last-updated-date\">Recently updated on August 31st, 2024 at 12:31 am<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The output of the photovoltaic production forecast for the short term (12-72 hours ahead), obtained with a multi-model applied to the Analog Ensemble, is used as input to an ARIMAX (forecast horizon from 15 to 180 minutes), to achieve a multi-time scale forecast.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":93,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"tags":[1324,1401,1328,1407],"targets":[1314],"pubblicazioni_tipologie":[773],"class_list":["post-192658","pubblicazioni","type-pubblicazioni","status-publish","hentry","tag-electricity-network-en","tag-numerical-models","tag-photovoltaics","tag-quality-of-supply","targets-press-media-en","pubblicazioni_tipologie-isi-article-en"],"acf":{"projects":{"ID":191050,"post_author":"464","post_date":"2024-07-10 16:51:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-10 14:51:19","post_content":"","post_title":"Architecture and management models of the electrical system and grids","post_excerpt":"The project aims to develop methodologies, software tools, prototypes and demonstrators to optimise electric transmission and distribution grids, as well as new architecture and system management models and new regulatory schemes that encourage the integration of renewable and non-programmable generation, self-generation, storage systems and aggregators, and that take into account electric penetration.","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"architecture-and-management-models-of-the-electrical-system-and-grids","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-21 12:10:45","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-21 10:10:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/progetti\/architecture-and-management-models-of-the-electrical-system-and-grids\/","menu_order":0,"post_type":"progetti","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},"order_posts":"","dont_show_search":false,"related_posts":false,"dont_show_hompage":false,"show_on_slider":false,"single_post_data":{"titolo_spot":"","post_content":"<p>The unstoppable spread of photovoltaic production drives the search for intelligent solutions to mitigate imbalances between energy supply and demand, manage grid instability and ensure stable profits for the producer. Due to the development of energy markets with multiple time periods, there is an increasing need for production forecasts on multiple time scales, from fifteen minutes up to days ahead. To address this problem, this study presents both a short-term (three days ahead) and a very short-term (three hours ahead) PV production forecasting method. The short term is based on a multi-model approach and refers to different configurations of the Analog Ensemble method, using the forecasts of four numerical weather forecasting models. The very short-term one consists of an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model with eXogenous input (ARIMAX) which uses the short-term power forecast output and irradiance from satellite processing as exogenous variables. The methods\u2014applied for one year to four small grid-connected plants in Italy\u2014achieved promising improvements compared to reference methods. The study also revealed the usefulness of satellite cloud cover data to interpret correctly the results of performance analysis.<\/p>\n","scarica_file":false,"link_estreno":[{"link_text":"Download ISI Article","link":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/14\/3\/789"}],"button":{"text":"","link":""},"referente_group":false,"data_emissione":"2021-02-02","autori":"E. Collino, D. Ronzio (RSE S.p.A.)","destinazione":"MDPI Energies 2021, 14(3), 789, February 02, 2021","rif_rse":"21000593"},"satellite_post_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Exploitation of a New Short-Term Multimodel Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method in the Very Short-Term Horizon to Derive a Multi-Time Scale Forecasting System - RSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/publications\/exploitation-of-a-new-short-term-multimodel-photovoltaic-power-forecasting-method-in-the-very-short-term-horizon-to-derive-a-multi-time-scale-forecasting-system\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Exploitation of a New Short-Term Multimodel Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method in the Very Short-Term Horizon to Derive a Multi-Time Scale Forecasting System - 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