Some future scenarios related to climate extremes such as droughts and floods were developed based on an ensemble of high-resolution Euro-CORDEX models under three different radiative forcings (RCPs). Drought conditions and extreme precipitation will likely exacerbate over the next few decades without mitigation (RCP 8.5). They will be less critical if partial mitigation actions are undertaken (RCP 4.5) and are expected to be significantly reduced with decarbonization policies (RCP 2.6).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":93,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"tags":[1405,1310,1318,1320],"targets":[],"pubblicazioni_tipologie":[773],"class_list":["post-192688","pubblicazioni","type-pubblicazioni","status-publish","hentry","tag-climate-change","tag-decarbonization","tag-development-scenarios-en","tag-sustainable-development-en","pubblicazioni_tipologie-isi-article-en"],"acf":{"projects":{"ID":191053,"post_author":"464","post_date":"2024-07-10 16:51:45","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-10 14:51:45","post_content":"","post_title":"Models and tools for interventions, including preventive interventions, for defending and improving grid security and resilience","post_excerpt":"Models and tools for interventions, including preventive interventions, for defending and improving grid security and resilience","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"models-and-tools-for-interventions-including-preventive-interventions-for-defending-and-improving-grid-security-and-resilience","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-09 16:02:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-09 14:02:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/progetti\/models-and-tools-for-interventions-including-preventive-interventions-for-defending-and-improving-grid-security-and-resilience\/","menu_order":0,"post_type":"progetti","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},"order_posts":"","dont_show_search":false,"related_posts":false,"dont_show_hompage":false,"show_on_slider":false,"single_post_data":{"titolo_spot":"","post_content":"
To support the development of adaptation policies and measures to deal with the impacts of climate change in Italy, the paper analyzes the expected changes for average temperature and precipitation values, and for extreme events such as drought periods and floods, highlighting some local trends in the various Italian regions that have so far been little explored. The study was conducted on the basis of a series of high resolution Euro-CORDEX models (horizontal resolution 0.11, approximately 12 km) to estimate the danger of climate change according to three different hypotheses of socio-economic development (RCPs): a business as usual scenario, i.e. without reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5), a scenario with partial control of climate-changing emissions (RCP 4.5) and a scenario with mitigation actions (RCP 2.6). After filtering out models with limited performance in reconstructing the current climate, the multi-model climate change scenarios were characterized by comparing the average values of the base period (1971-2000) with those developed for the short term (2021-2050), medium term (2041-2070) and long term (2071-2100). Two WMO ETCCDI indices were considered to study climate extremes: Consecutive Dry Days and Extreme Precipitations. Despite some uncertainties (related to some model discrepancies), drought conditions and extreme precipitation will likely exacerbate in the coming decades without mitigation (RCP 8.5). These conditions will be less critical if partial mitigation actions are undertaken (RCP 4.5) and are expected to be significantly reduced with decarbonization policies (RCP 2.6).<\/p>\n","scarica_file":false,"link_estreno":[{"link_text":"Download ISI Article","link":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4441\/13\/10\/1335"}],"button":{"text":"","link":""},"referente_group":false,"data_emissione":"2021-05-11","autori":"P. Faggian (RSE S.p.A.)","destinazione":"MDPI Water, 13(10), 1335, May 1, 2021","rif_rse":"21003946"},"satellite_post_url":""},"yoast_head":"\n