{"id":202912,"date":"2025-04-17T10:23:20","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T08:23:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/pubblicazioni\/an-efficient-methodology-to-identify-relevant-multiple-contingencies-and-their-probability-for-long-term-resilience-studies\/"},"modified":"2025-04-17T10:25:04","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T08:25:04","slug":"an-efficient-methodology-to-identify-relevant-multiple-contingencies-and-their-probability-for-long-term-resilience-studies","status":"publish","type":"pubblicazioni","link":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/publications\/an-efficient-methodology-to-identify-relevant-multiple-contingencies-and-their-probability-for-long-term-resilience-studies\/","title":{"rendered":"An Efficient Methodology to Identify Relevant Multiple Contingencies and Their Probability for Long-Term Resilience Studies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The paper proposes a methodology for the identification of relevant multiple contingencies and their probabilities, suitable for the long-term resilience analysis of large power systems, relying on clustering and probability-based identification of multiple contingencies within each cluster.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":93,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"tags":[1325,1335,1340],"targets":[1314,1317],"pubblicazioni_tipologie":[773],"class_list":["post-202912","pubblicazioni","type-pubblicazioni","status-publish","hentry","tag-electrical-system","tag-planning-en","tag-resilience","targets-press-media-en","targets-research","pubblicazioni_tipologie-isi-article-en"],"acf":{"dont_show_hompage":true,"projects":{"ID":188405,"post_author":"93","post_date":"2024-06-13 15:10:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-13 13:10:12","post_content":"","post_title":"Resilience and Security for Energy Systems","post_excerpt":"The goal of the project is to increase the security and resilience of the energy system in the face of greater environmental threats due to climate change, through the development of tools to support institutions and operators and the definition of an optimal set of actions to be adopted for this purpose.","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"resilience-and-security-for-energy-systems","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-02 10:30:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-02 08:30:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/progetti\/resilience-and-security-for-energy-systems\/","menu_order":0,"post_type":"progetti","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},"order_posts":"","dont_show_search":false,"related_posts":false,"show_on_slider":false,"single_post_data":{"titolo_spot":"","post_content":"<p>The selection of multiple contingency scenarios is a key task to perform resilience-oriented long-term planning analyses. However, the identification of relevant multiple contingencies may easily lead to combinatorial explosion issues, even for relatively small systems.<\/p>\n<p>This paper proposes an effective methodology for the identification of relevant multiple contingencies and their probabilities, suitable for the long-term resilience analysis of large power systems.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The methodology is composed of two main pillars:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>(1) the clustering of lines that are more likely to fail together, to reduce the computational complexity of the analysis exploiting historical weather data and<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>(2) the probability-based identification of multiple contingencies within each cluster, where the contingency probability is computed applying the copula theory.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Tests performed on a portion of the Italian EHV transmission system confirm the validity of the clustering results compared against historical failure events. Moreover, the copula-based algorithm for contingency probability estimation passes the tests carried out on relatively large clusters with very low error tolerance.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The method successfully pinpoints critical multiple contingency scenarios and their likelihoods, making it valuable for assessing power system resilience over long-term horizons in support of resilience-oriented planning activities<\/p>\n","scarica_file":false,"link_estreno":[{"link_text":"Download Publication","link":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/17\/9\/2028"}],"button":{"text":"","link":""},"referente_group":false,"data_emissione":"2024-04-24","autori":"E. Ciapessoni, D. Cirio, A. Pitto (RSE S.p.A.)","destinazione":"MDPI Energies, Vol. 17 Issue 9","rif_rse":"24004147"},"satellite_post_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>An Efficient Methodology to Identify Relevant Multiple Contingencies and Their Probability for Long-Term Resilience Studies - RSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/publications\/an-efficient-methodology-to-identify-relevant-multiple-contingencies-and-their-probability-for-long-term-resilience-studies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"An Efficient Methodology to Identify Relevant Multiple Contingencies and Their Probability for Long-Term Resilience Studies - RSE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The paper proposes a methodology for the identification of relevant multiple contingencies and their probabilities, suitable for the long-term resilience analysis of large power systems, relying on clustering and probability-based identification of multiple contingencies within each cluster.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/publications\/an-efficient-methodology-to-identify-relevant-multiple-contingencies-and-their-probability-for-long-term-resilience-studies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RSE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-04-17T08:25:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/publications\/an-efficient-methodology-to-identify-relevant-multiple-contingencies-and-their-probability-for-long-term-resilience-studies\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/publications\/an-efficient-methodology-to-identify-relevant-multiple-contingencies-and-their-probability-for-long-term-resilience-studies\/\",\"name\":\"An Efficient Methodology to Identify Relevant Multiple Contingencies and Their Probability for Long-Term Resilience Studies - 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