{"id":189623,"date":"2024-06-26T11:55:43","date_gmt":"2024-06-26T09:55:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/literature-review-on-risk-and-uncertainty-modeling-in-cba-mca-studies-of-smart-grid-projects-and-identification-of-methodology-to-be-developed-for-implementation-in-a-software-tool\/"},"modified":"2024-07-02T14:45:09","modified_gmt":"2024-07-02T12:45:09","slug":"literature-review-on-risk-and-uncertainty-modeling-in-cba-mca-studies-of-smart-grid-projects-and-identification-of-methodology-to-be-developed-for-implementation-in-a-software-tool","status":"publish","type":"rapporti","link":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/reports\/literature-review-on-risk-and-uncertainty-modeling-in-cba-mca-studies-of-smart-grid-projects-and-identification-of-methodology-to-be-developed-for-implementation-in-a-software-tool\/","title":{"rendered":"Literature review on risk and uncertainty modeling in CBA-MCA studies of smart grid projects and identification of methodology to be developed for implementation in a software tool"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"last-updated-date\">Recently updated on July 2nd, 2024 at 02:45 pm<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The report describes the study to identify a suitable uncertainty and risk modeling for Multi-Criteria Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA-MCA) to evaluate the use of flexibility in the distribution system in smart grid projects. Scenario analysis was identified for implementation in the smartgrideval tool, which combines effectiveness, ease of use, and the ability to assign a probability of occurrence to the scenarios. The activity falls within the Cost-Benefits WG of the IEA-ISGAN TCP.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":93,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"tags":[1532,1525,1337,1315],"targets":[1317],"rapporti_tipologie":[762],"class_list":["post-189623","rapporti","type-rapporti","status-publish","hentry","tag-cost-benefit-analysis","tag-electrical-distribution","tag-flexibility","tag-smart-grids-en","targets-research","rapporti_tipologie-report-en"],"acf":{"dont_show_hompage":true,"projects":{"ID":188403,"post_author":"464","post_date":"2024-06-13 15:10:08","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-13 13:10:08","post_content":"","post_title":"Evolution, planning, scheduling and operation of power grids","post_excerpt":"The goal of the project is the pursuit of efficient management of the Italian electricity system that meets, in evolving scenarios, criteria of security and quality of operation, adequacy and resilience, ensuring a system-based approach. ","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"evolution-planning-scheduling-and-operation-of-power-grids","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-02 10:31:45","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-02 08:31:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/progetti\/evolution-planning-scheduling-and-operation-of-power-grids\/","menu_order":0,"post_type":"progetti","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},"order_posts":"","dont_show_search":false,"related_posts":false,"show_on_slider":false,"single_post_data":{"titolo_spot":"","post_content":"<p>This report describes the study carried out to identify an appropriate modeling of uncertainty and risk in the Multi-Criteria Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA-MCA) of Smart Grid (SG) projects to evaluate the use of flexibility to develop the distribution system.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The study\u2014which falls within the \u2018Cost-Benefits\u2019 WG3 of the IEA ISGAN TCP\u2014is part of a strand of research that aims to develop a generally valid methodology for the design evaluation of development alternatives for SGs, which considers non-monetary impacts and externalities.<br \/>\nIn the course of previous activities, a CBA-MCA web tool, called \u2018smartgrideval,\u2019 was developed and gradually improved, until it began its recent extension toward the evaluation of flexibility services, also taking into account the interaction of different carriers (sector coupling).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In order to make the tool more effective, improving the choice of alternatives and risk mitigation, the aspect of uncertainty (related to economic growth, the scenario analyzed or the method used)\u2014one of the most critical for the creation of the flexibility market\u2014was now addressed.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The scientific literature is rich in techniques to manage uncertainty in decision-making processes. However, not all approaches lend themselves to application to the various uncertainties.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The review carried out aims to provide an overview of the techniques developed to account for uncertainty in CBA and MCA.<br \/>\nIt is inferred that the decision-making procedure in an uncertain context must start by identifying the sources of uncertainty. Computational burden and ease of use even by decision-makers, not necessarily insiders, must also be considered.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Scenario analysis\u2014i.e., the analysis of several scenarios featuring simultaneous variations in one or more parameters\u2014was found to be the methodology that achieves the best compromise between effectiveness of results and ease of use. In addition, it allows for the uncertainty of future scenarios to be taken into account by assigning each one a probability of occurrence and applying \u2018minimization of maximum regret\u2019 (min-max-regret) on the value of the alternatives.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>After validation on test networks and comparison with other leading strategic investment evaluation tools, the plan is to update the smartgrideval tool by integrating the identified methodology.<\/p>\n","link_estreno":false,"scarica_file":[{"download_option":"download","file_name":"Download Report","download":{"ID":185753,"id":185753,"title":"22013962","filename":"22013962.pdf","filesize":1093942,"url":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/22013962.pdf","link":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/attachment\/22013962\/","alt":"","author":"93","description":"","caption":"","name":"22013962","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":185752,"date":"2024-02-08 09:44:19","modified":"2024-02-08 09:44:19","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"application\/pdf","type":"application","subtype":"pdf","icon":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/document.png"}}],"button":{"text":"","link":""},"referente_group":false,"data_emissione":"2022-12-31","autori":"I. M. Gianinoni, S. Ruggeri, M. Troncia (RSE S.p.A.)","rapporto":"","rif_rse":"22013962"},"satellite_post_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Literature review on risk and uncertainty modeling in CBA-MCA studies of smart grid projects and identification of methodology to be developed for implementation in a software tool - RSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Literature review on risk and uncertainty modeling in CBA-MCA studies of smart grid projects and identification of methodology to be developed for implementation in a software tool - RSE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The report describes the study to identify a suitable uncertainty and risk modeling for Multi-Criteria Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA-MCA) to evaluate the use of flexibility in the distribution system in smart grid projects. Scenario analysis was identified for implementation in the smartgrideval tool, which combines effectiveness, ease of use, and the ability to assign a probability of occurrence to the scenarios. The activity falls within the Cost-Benefits WG of the IEA-ISGAN TCP.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RSE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-07-02T12:45:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/\",\"name\":\"Literature review on risk and uncertainty modeling in CBA-MCA studies of smart grid projects and identification of methodology to be developed for implementation in a software tool - RSE\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-06-26T09:55:43+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-07-02T12:45:09+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Literature review on risk and uncertainty modeling in CBA-MCA studies of smart grid projects and identification of methodology to be developed for implementation in a software tool\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/\",\"name\":\"RSE\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#organization\",\"name\":\"RSE\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/cropped-logo_rse_2022.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/cropped-logo_rse_2022.png\",\"width\":734,\"height\":164,\"caption\":\"RSE\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Literature review on risk and uncertainty modeling in CBA-MCA studies of smart grid projects and identification of methodology to be developed for implementation in a software tool - RSE","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Literature review on risk and uncertainty modeling in CBA-MCA studies of smart grid projects and identification of methodology to be developed for implementation in a software tool - RSE","og_description":"The report describes the study to identify a suitable uncertainty and risk modeling for Multi-Criteria Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA-MCA) to evaluate the use of flexibility in the distribution system in smart grid projects. Scenario analysis was identified for implementation in the smartgrideval tool, which combines effectiveness, ease of use, and the ability to assign a probability of occurrence to the scenarios. The activity falls within the Cost-Benefits WG of the IEA-ISGAN TCP.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/","og_site_name":"RSE","article_modified_time":"2024-07-02T12:45:09+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/","url":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/","name":"Literature review on risk and uncertainty modeling in CBA-MCA studies of smart grid projects and identification of methodology to be developed for implementation in a software tool - RSE","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#website"},"datePublished":"2024-06-26T09:55:43+00:00","dateModified":"2024-07-02T12:45:09+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/rapporti\/survey-bibliografica-sulla-modellizzazione-del-rischio-e-dellincertezza-nellambito-degli-studi-cba-mca-di-progetti-smart-grid-e-identificazione-della-metodologia-da-sviluppare-per-l\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Literature review on risk and uncertainty modeling in CBA-MCA studies of smart grid projects and identification of methodology to be developed for implementation in a software tool"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/","name":"RSE","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#organization","name":"RSE","url":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/cropped-logo_rse_2022.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/cropped-logo_rse_2022.png","width":734,"height":164,"caption":"RSE"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}}]}},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rapporti\/189623","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rapporti"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/rapporti"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/93"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=189623"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rapporti\/189623\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":189787,"href":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rapporti\/189623\/revisions\/189787"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=189623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=189623"},{"taxonomy":"targets","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/targets?post=189623"},{"taxonomy":"rapporti_tipologie","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rapporti_tipologie?post=189623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}