In this study, the feasibility of an early warning system for the prediction of failures of underground distribution lines in urban areas was evaluated. Important correlations were highlighted between failure data and some variables, such as the Actual Load or even meteorological variables such as temperature and soil humidity. Finally, a statistical model was developed for the city of Milan aimed at providing an estimate of the daily rate of failures with the associated uncertainty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":464,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"tags":[1324,1379],"targets":[1317],"rapporti_tipologie":[762],"class_list":["post-195560","rapporti","type-rapporti","status-publish","hentry","tag-electricity-network-en","tag-technologies-and-components","targets-research","rapporti_tipologie-report-en"],"acf":{"dont_show_hompage":true,"projects":{"ID":191042,"post_author":"464","post_date":"2024-07-10 15:54:47","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-10 13:54:47","post_content":"","post_title":"Components and materials for safety and resilience","post_excerpt":"The project aims to study and research innovative component and material solutions in order to increase the safety and resilience of the electrical system, also through new diagnostic methodologies which are necessary to cope with the new requirements of the grid and the changing environmental stresses to which it is subjected.","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"components-and-materials-for-safety-and-resilience","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-09 15:52:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-09 13:52:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/progetti\/components-and-materials-for-safety-and-resilience\/","menu_order":0,"post_type":"progetti","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},"order_posts":"","dont_show_search":false,"related_posts":false,"show_on_slider":false,"single_post_data":{"titolo_spot":"","post_content":"
In this study, the feasibility of an alert system for predicting failures of underground distribution lines in urban areas was evaluated. In recent years, energy distribution utilities have observed a significant increase in the frequency of service interruptions on underground electrical lines, mostly concentrated in urban areas. The creation of an alert system for this type of service disruption required access to failure data provided by the energy distribution utilities. A first case study was conducted in the city of Milan, where failure data from 2012-2015 was available. The availability of meteorological data, including not only atmospheric conditions but also variables like soil temperature and humidity, proved crucial in identifying correlations with the failure data. These variables are commonly included in the outputs of weather forecasting and reanalysis models currently in use at RSE.<\/p>\n
Additionally, the impact of electricity demand on failures was assessed by analyzing the Actual Load data published by TERNA, which can serve as a proxy for estimating the load on the urban area of Milan. Other variables potentially correlated with failure data were also considered, such as the temperature of an ideal underground conductor carrying current or atmospheric variables like air temperature to identify summer heatwaves.<\/p>\n
Once the correlations between failures and the aforementioned variables were identified, a statistical model for the city of Milan was developed, aimed at providing an estimate of the daily failure rate along with the associated uncertainty. This model explains a fair amount of variance (around 50%) and shows that the variables most influencing failure predictions are associated with energy demand, air temperature, and deep soil humidity.<\/p>\n
This work is preparatory to the implementation of an alert system for predicting critical conditions leading to failures in underground electrical lines. However, strong synergy with distribution utilities is needed to obtain more time series of failures in other Italian urban areas, as well as more spatially detailed load information compared to the zonal Actual Load data used so far.<\/p>\n","link_estreno":false,"scarica_file":[{"download_option":"download","file_name":"Download Report","download":{"ID":105746,"id":105746,"title":"19012847-319090.pdf","filename":"19012847-319090.pdf","filesize":2223887,"url":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/19012847-319090.pdf","link":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/en\/rapporti\/19012847\/19012847-319090\/","alt":"","author":"464","description":"19012847-319090.pdf","caption":"","name":"19012847-319090","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":132851,"date":"2021-12-31 00:00:00","modified":"2021-03-17 12:50:06","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"application\/pdf","type":"application","subtype":"pdf","icon":"https:\/\/www.rse-web.it\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/document.png"}}],"button":{"text":"","link":""},"referente_group":false,"data_emissione":"2019-12-31","autori":"M. Lacavalla, R. Bonanno","rapporto":"","rif_rse":"19012847"},"satellite_post_url":""},"yoast_head":"\n