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pubblicazioni - Presentazione

A power forecast system can really contribute to the optimization of the grid?

pubblicazioni - Presentazione

A power forecast system can really contribute to the optimization of the grid?

Verrà presentata l’attività svolta in RSE/SFE in merito alle previsioni di potenza producibile da impianti fotovoltaici di diverse dimensioni (da qualche kWp a MWp di potenza nominale), con particolare attenzione alle problematiche modellistiche inerenti alla fattibilità di previsioni di produzione a breve termine (da 1 a 3 giorni in avanti).

The work done in RSE in power forecasting will be presented. Different solar power plants, with size from few kWp to some MWp, have been considered, and particular attention will be paid to the modeling features with regard to short-term forecasts, i.e. from 1 to 3 days ahead. The forecasting method is based on the outputs of a numerical weather prediction model (RAMS), and on a suitable post-processing, which uses production time series. The measurements have to be validated before being used in the training process, and this has been achieved by means of a specific software developed in RSE, based on cloudiness reconstructed from satellite imagery. An indication of the possibility of estimating the size of a storage system, to reduce energy imbalance and the associated penalties, will be given.

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