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pubblicazioni - Presentazione

An application and verification of Ensemble Forecasting on wind power to assess operational risk indicators in power grids

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#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

pubblicazioni - Presentazione

An application and verification of Ensemble Forecasting on wind power to assess operational risk indicators in power grids

Si presenta una tecnica sviluppata presso RSE per valutare l’impatto dell’accuratezza previsionale sulla probabilità di violazioni della sicurezza nelle reti elettriche, sulla base di una previsione condotta con un modello ensemble su un caso reale italiano.

Wind energy is part of the so-called not schedulable renewable sources, i.e. it must be exploited when it is available, otherwise it is lost. In European regulation it has priority of dispatch over conventional generation, to maximize green energy production. However, being variable and uncertain, wind (and solar) generation raises several issues for the security of the power grids operation. In particular, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need as accurate as possible forecasts. Nowadays a deterministic approach in wind power forecasting (WPF) could easily be considered insufficient to face the uncertainty associated to wind energy. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of a forecast and a reliable estimation of its uncertainty, probabilistic forecasting is becoming increasingly widespread. In this paper we investigate the performances of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling Limited area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS). First the ensemble application is followed by assessment of its properties (i.e. consistency, reliability) using different verification indices and diagrams calculated on wind power. Then we provide examples of how ensemble based wind power forecast can be used in power system security analyses. Quantifying the forecast uncertainty allows to determine more accurately the regulation reserve requirements, hence improving security of operation and reducing system costs. In particular, the paper also presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) technique developed at RSE and aimed to evaluate the impact of wind power forecast accuracy on the probability of security violations in power systems.

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Tag correlate

#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

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