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Analyzing climate changes in planning climate–resilient electric infrastructures

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#Accumulo #Biotecnologie

pubblicazioni - Presentazione

Analyzing climate changes in planning climate–resilient electric infrastructures

Sono stati studiati i cambiamenti di temperatura, precipitazione e vento e le variazioni di alcuni eventi estremi in Italia, sulla base delle più recenti simulazioni climatiche ad elevata risoluzione spaziale. I risultati indicano un inasprimento delle condizioni climatiche nel corso del secolo.

To support the development of national adaptation policies on Italian energy sector, climate change scenarios have been elaborated on the basis of high-resolution regional climate simulations provided by three EU-funded Projects (I ) under different radiative forcings. The effects of climate changes over Italy have been investigated by comparing the current climate (1971–2000) with medium-term (2021–2050) and long term (2071-2100) scenarios, after a models’ validation with reference data-base (E-OBS and MESAN).Beside investigating the incremental changes of temperature, precipitation and wind speed, the analysis deals with the changes of some extreme events (Heat Waves, Droughts, Severe Thunderstorms, Floods, Cold Waves and Wet-Snow events) selected because of their serious impacts on the electrical system. They have been studied by using a subset of ETCCDI indexes plus an ad hoc index to characterize the wet-snow frequency.The more significant results highlight a warmer climate (1-1.5°C), above all in summer with a temperature increase of about 2°C and precipitation reduction of 20% by 2050. The heat waves occurrences will likely increase of about 20-30% in the next decades, and 40-50% after the middle of the century; droughts are likely to become more frequent over time, increasing of about 5% to 20% between the first and second future period; floods are also projected to increase locally from 10% to 30% in their occurrences.

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#Accumulo #Biotecnologie

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