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Application of “analog” method for wind power forecasting

pubblicazioni - Poster

Application of “analog” method for wind power forecasting

L’energia eolica essendo variabile e discontinua, solleva diverse questioni per la sicurezza delle operazioni di Reti elettriche. E’ analizzata la possibilità di produrre previsioni deterministiche più accurate con una stima della loro accuratezza.

Wind energy being variable and uncertain, raises several issues for the security of the power grids operations. In particular, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need as accurate as possible forecasts. Concerning to this, it is also important to provide information about the accuracy of a deterministic forecast. A new method called Analog Ensemble (originally suggested by NCAR) is applied to wind power forecasting. The possibility of producing more accurate deterministic forecasts together with an estimate of their accuracy among other methods is analyzed. To support this, an application to a real case wind farm is explored showing evaluation indexes and graphs.

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