Climatic Chance impacts on Electric System over Italian Region

pubblicazioni - Presentazione

Climatic Chance impacts on Electric System over Italian Region

pubblicazioni - Presentazione

Climatic Chance impacts on Electric System over Italian Region

–

As climate changes, including changes in climate mean, variability and extremes, may have severe impacts on socio-economic systems and sectors, some climatic scenarios for the next decades are elaborated with focus on energy system. Energy demand is strongly linked to local climatic conditions. In our understanding of climatic change in the 21st century there are a number of fundamental uncertainties concerning external forcing changes, their influence on climate system, the effective climate change signal and the natural variability of climate system. To deal with these uncertainties, ten different high-resolution (25 km horizontal resolution) regional climatic simulations, provided by E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 Project ENSEMBLES were analyzed in the period 1961-2050. Models with the best performances in describing climate over some areas critical for Italian electric system (Alpine Region, Po Valley, Po Basin) in the years 1961-2000 were selected, comparing simulated mean temperature and total precipitation values with gridded data provided by ECA&D project.