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Climate changes, including changes in climate mean, variability and extremes, may have severe impacts on socio-economic systems and sectors. Energy system is strongly linked to local climatic conditions. In fact, temperature and precipitation changes affect both energy use and energy production in many part of the world. In particular, they are likely to have adverse impacts on energy supply and demand over Mediterranean Basin because of the increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation projected for the 21st century [1, 3]. In our understanding of climatic change in the 21st century there are a number of fundamental uncertainties concerning external forcing changes, their influence on climate system, the effective climate change signal and the natural variability of climate system. To deal with these uncertainties , ten different high-resolution (25 km horizontal resolution) regional climatic simulations, provided by E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org), were analyzed in the period 1961-2050. Models with the best performances in describing climate over some areas critical for Italian electric system (Alpine Region, Po Valley, Po Basin) in the years 1961-2000 were selected, comparing simulated mean temperature and total precipitation values with gridded data provided by ECA&D project (http://eca.knmi.nl). Using this runs subset, ensemble means have been calculated to investigate climate temporal and spatial variability over Southern Europe, with focus over Italy. Considering the period of greatest interest for an optimal use of climate risk management by decision-making and stakeholders is the next decades, some scenarios describing the period [2011, 2040] have been elaborated with particular attention for the summer season in which climate change impacts are likely to be more serious because of the high temperatures impacts on peak energy demands . Despite the uncertainties due to the spread of the models, the increase in temperature of about 1°C projected for summer season of next decades highlights a serious vulnerability of energy sector.
31 Dicembre 2011
Studi sullo sviluppo del Sistema Elettrico e della Rete Elettrica Nazionale (P01 GOV)