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pubblicazioni - Presentazione

Hydropower and climate change: the Italian case studies

pubblicazioni - Presentazione

Hydropower and climate change: the Italian case studies

E’ stata condotta un’analisi dell’influenza dei cambiamenti climatici attesi sulla produzione idroelettrica in due casi studio ubicati nelle Alpi italiane occidentali. Le variazioni nella produzione annuale di elettricità sono molto variabili e sito-specifiche. In generale, i risultati indicano una diversa modulazione della produzione durante l’anno, una maggior variabilità interannuale e un aumento dei possibili conflitti per l’utilizzo dell’acqua.

In this study a methodology for assessing the impact of climate change on hydropower is described and its application to small case studies is reported. Firstly, the future of hydroelectric power in a changing energy market is discussed; then the main drivers of hydropower systems are analyzed, i.e. water inflows and the energy market prices. The hydrologic component was used to assess impacts of Climatic Change on hydropower taking energy prices constant during all the simulations. In order to assess the importance of changes in the energy market, a sensitivity analysis was done on electricity market prices. Given inflow and energy prices, optimal hydropower operation simulations were performed for two small case studies localized in Po River catchment. Results of this analysis are compared, showing quite different patterns of evolution for hydroelectric production in 2001-2050 period. Comparison between reservoir management in two case studies show similar behaviour in both areas, the greater variability in summer inflows will affect the filling of hydropower reservoirs and, in some year, it will not be possible to use all the storage capacity. In general, a possible increase in water conflicts is expected among different water uses.

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