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Modelling chain set up for the assessment of policy impacts on air quality and human health

pubblicazioni - Poster

Modelling chain set up for the assessment of policy impacts on air quality and human health

A modelling chain composed by an energetic model, a chemical and transport model and a human health function has been implemented in order to estimate the impact of future mobility scenarios.

Private road transport segment is one of the main contributors to poor air quality, especially in densely populated cities. This study aims to simulate future mobility scenarios on the Italian peninsula and the associated impacts. A modelling chain composed by several modules is implemented to perform this analysis and the implications of a Reference and a Decarbonization scenarios are discussed. The first module is composed by an energetic model which outlines the car fleet evolution in terms of composition, vehicles kilometres travelled (VKT) and energy consumptions in 2030. A novel methodology is then applied to the energy model output to infer the private road transport emission variation respect to the base case year (2010). Then the estimation of the scenario’s atmospheric concentration of NO2, PM2.5 and O3, over a whole year, is obtained by means of a chemical transport model. Finally, some estimates of the health impact of two scenarios are provided, based on the variation of PM2.5 and O3 simulated concentration, respect to the base case year. Both scenarios expect an increase of the total demand for private transport in 2030 (18% for the Reference one), but at the same time a reduction of ICE cars in favour of hybrid and electric vehicles, with respect to the base case year. This trend leads to a general improvement of air quality, especially for the Decarbonization scenario for which the reduction of NO2 concentration reaches 25% in some areas.

 

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