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pubblicazioni - Presentazione

Modelling the impact of plug-in electric vehicles (PHEV/PEV) on emission and air quality over Italy

pubblicazioni - Presentazione

Modelling the impact of plug-in electric vehicles (PHEV/PEV) on emission and air quality over Italy

Italy is often subject to high concentrations of particulate matter, leading to frequent exceedances of the air quality standards. Urban areas usually suffer the worst conditions, mainly due to transport and heating emissions. In recent years, an increasing attention has been given to the assessment of emission reduction policies driven by the implementation of electric vehicles (EV). One of the main issues related to the assessment of EV penetration is the estimation of the corresponding increase in electric energy demand and the consequent detrimental impact on air quality. As a first step of the policy assessment, a mobility scenario at 2030 has been designed considering a gradual penetration of 10 millions Plug-in hybrid/not hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV/PEV) in the Italian passenger cars market (about 25% of the 2030 passenger cars, De Nigris et al., 2010) . Then the corresponding increase in electric energy demand and emissions has been quantified. An increase in the yearly energy demand over Italy by 18 GWh has been estimated, corresponding to 18% of the 2030 baseline. Yearly NOX emissions of the energy sector increase by 2700 Mg (12.5%), SO2 by 3170 Mg (13.7%) and PM10 by 167 Mg (8.6%). Conversely, the penetration of PHEV/PEV produces an emission reduction from the transport sector, above all in the urban areas. More precisely, NOX country level emissions decreased by 13778 Mg (23.5%), SO2 by 325 Mg (30.9%) and PM10 by 134 Mg (15.8%). As a final step, the air quality impact has been assessed by applying the CAMx model over a 15 km step size simulation domain covering the whole Italy. CAMx has been driven by the WRF meteorological model; emissions have been derived from the Italian official inventory and the EMEP database. The CAMx modelling configuration was evaluated in a previous study against an observed data set of 215 Airbase air quality stations and as well as to a subset of EMEP stations.

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