On the value of uncertainty quantification and probabilistic wind power predictions

pubblicazioni - Poster

On the value of uncertainty quantification and probabilistic wind power predictions

Tag correlate

#Energie Rinnovabili #Eolico

pubblicazioni - Poster

On the value of uncertainty quantification and probabilistic wind power predictions

Il lavoro consiste nell’applicazione di un metodo innovativo per generare previsioni di potenza eolica a breve termine di tipo probabilistico, l’analog ensemble (AnEn). Il metodo è stato testato su un caso studio del sud Italia, introducendo un modello economico di mercato elettrico per simulare le penali derivanti dagli sbilanciamenti e i ricavi per un produttore di energia.

Among the limiting factors to the penetration of wind energy is the variable nature and limit to predictability of wind speed. We introduce a novel technique to generate short-term wind power predictions, the analog ensemble (AnEn), and estimate the economic value of AnEn-based short-term probabilistic predictions and uncertainty quantification for one real-world example over Europe. A model of an electricity market, which simulates a system where penalties must be paid by the producers of the energy on unbalancing, is introduced.

We present a real-world example of probabilistic wind power predictions and uncertainty quantification produced with the AnEn technique at a wind farm in Sicily, Italy, over a 505-day period. In our experiment we find that the economic benefit of a probabilistic approach compared to a deterministic one corresponds to an increment of the annual income around 20%.

Progetti

Generazione distribuita e reti attive (RetiAttive013)

Tag correlate

#Energie Rinnovabili #Eolico

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pubblicazioni - Poster

On the value of uncertainty quantification and probabilistic wind power predictions

pubblicazioni - Poster

On the value of uncertainty quantification and probabilistic wind power predictions

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