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Progresses on the Monte-Carlo approaches for security analysis

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#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

pubblicazioni - Presentazione

Progresses on the Monte-Carlo approaches for security analysis

Le slide presentano le attività svolte da RSE sul modulo Monte Carlo nel progetto iPST (iTesla Power System Tools) nell’anno 2017-2018, con un focus sulla funzionalità di sampling omotetico, sulla verifica dell’accuratezza del modello e della stagionalità degli errori di previsione.

The slides present the activities performed by RSE in order to extend the functionalities and to verify the accuracy of the Monte Carlo module which, within the iPST (iTesla Power System Tools) project platform, generates the set of uncertain grid states starting from the expected state considering the forecasting uncertainties of renewables and loads. In particular, during the year 2017-2018, RSE introduced the functionality of rapid sampling of loads of each nation in a homothetic way (i.e. with errors proportional to the forecast errors on the net active and reactive power exchange of the same nation with the foreign countries).

Furthermore, RSE thoroughly verified the dependence of the model accuracy with respect to the composition and the extension of the historical data set used to generate the forecast error model. Finally, RSE studied the seasonality of forecast errors and performed a comparison of the forecast model accuracy obtained respectively by the IDCF’s (Intra day Congestion Forecast) and by the DACF’s (Day Ahead Congestion Forecast).

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Tag correlate

#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

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