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pubblicazioni - Presentazione

Response of electricity demand to temperature and solar radiation in Italy

pubblicazioni - Presentazione

Response of electricity demand to temperature and solar radiation in Italy

E’ illustrata una metodologia per stimare il ruolo di alcune variabili meteorologiche sulla domanda di energia elettrica in Italia.

The dependence of Italian daily electricity demand on cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation is investigated by means of a regression model applied to twelve consecutive two-year intervals in the 1990-2013 period. The model is based on deterministic components related to the weekly cyclical pattern of demand and to long-term demand changes and on weather-sensitive components related to cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation.

The model establishes a strong contribution of cooling degree-days to the Italian electricity demand. This contribution shows a strong positive trend in the period considered. The contributions relative to the last 3 two-year periods are nearly constant, suggesting a possible slowing-down of the positive trend, which may be a consequence of the present day economic crisis. The projections of cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation under climate change scenarios will be presented.

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