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Publications - ISI Article

Progress in regional PV power forecasting: A sensitivity analysis on the Italian case study

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#Photovoltaics

Publications - ISI Article

Progress in regional PV power forecasting: A sensitivity analysis on the Italian case study

The article presents the study carried out in collaboration with partners from the IEA PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME (PVPS) for comparing and analyzing area-based photovoltaic production forecasting methodologies applied in Italy.

The increasing penetration of photovoltaics demands accurate production forecasting to mitigate negative effects associated with intrinsic variability, such as overgeneration, grid instability, and additional reserve demand. This study presents a comparison among six different forecasting models applied to six Italian market zones over one year.

 

The study reveals that forecast accuracy is primarily influenced by the algorithm and its pre- and post-processing, showing a performance accuracy range of 30%. Forecast horizon has a lesser impact on accuracy. It is demonstrated that larger forecasting areas result in less impact on accuracy due to the non-uniform spatial distribution and capacity of the photovoltaic parks.

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Rif.RSE​

22003837

Destination​

Renewable Energy, Vol. 189, April 30, 2022, Pages 983-996

Publication Date

30 April 2022

Authors​

M. Pierro, D. Moser, (EURAC Research), D. Gentili, F. R. Liolli, C. Cornaro, (University of Rome), A. Betti, M. Moschella (i-EM S.r.l,), E. Collino, D. Ronzio (RSE S.p.A.), D. van der Meer (CHOSE)

Publication Type

ISI Article

Projects

Flexibility of Integrated Energy Systems (FlexIES - Flexibility of Integrated Energy Systems)

Target​

Press & Media Research

Related tags

#Photovoltaics

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