The “Electrical, energy and environmental analysis and scenarios” project of the “Governance, management and development of the interconnected national electricity system and market integration” area deals with the development and analysis of scenarios for the evolution of the national electricity and energy systems and the interactions between the energy system and the environment. Supporting the governance of the national energy system is without a doubt the main objective. It was initially carried out through a series of activities for the Italian government to evaluate the process of defining the European climate and energy targets for 2030 for Italy, providing results, skills and tools to evaluate the impact of national energy policy decisions. In addition to supporting the institutions and governance of the electricity system, RSE carries out specific research and analysis activities on the evolution of the electricity and energy system. In particular, the scenario for the evolution of electricity consumption in Italy up to 2050 is updated every year on the basis of the latest available final figures. RSE also has a model of the national energy system, MONET, which is further developed every year by adding new features and improving the existing structure. The tool is used to analyze the evolution of the Italian energy system in different scenarios. The document presents the results of the comparison between three different scenarios: a reference scenario and two policy scenarios that meet the new targets set by the 2030 energy package. In this context, a new activity has been underway since 2014 (carried out annually) with the aim of providing a detailed analysis of the various items that make up the electricity bill. This year’s second update is based on the final 2015 results.

Medium and long term energy scenarios cannot ignore the impact of climate change on energy systems. In this project, the impacts on demand (in terms of heating and cooling degree days) and precipitation have been addressed, with a particular focus on extreme events. The degree-day indices for Italy have been calculated using different methodologies in order to have an estimate of them under current and future climatic conditions, which is necessary to determine energy demand scenarios. This activity was also carried out in view of the interest in these indices expressed by a working group set up by the Presidency of the Council to prepare the National Action Plan for Climate and Energy. The study of variations in the precipitation pattern was carried out using the results of the Med-CORDEX simulations.

Monitoring of atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (CH4 and O3) continued at the Plateau Rosa monitoring station, a laboratory that has been in operation for over 28 years. The station is part of the international monitoring network Global Atmosphere Watch and contributes to the quality data collection of the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases. The longest historical series of continuous measurements consists of CO2 measurements and has an annual growth rate of 2.02 ppm. The measurements carried out in 2016 showed a significant increase in the background concentration of CO2, most likely caused by the intense El Niño event that occurred in the last two years (2015-2016). Finally, comparing the global emissions data with the annual average background concentrations of CO2, a significant correlation was found between these two quantities, allowing CO2 measurements to be used as a useful predictor of global emissions. Global climate change has a significant impact on the water cycle, which in turn interacts with the energy system. The interactions between the water system and electricity generation in the Italian context have been addressed through the application of so-called “water footprint” methodologies, focusing on aspects related to water scarcity. Finally, the interactions between the electricity and water systems and the development of renewable energies are addressed. The results in relation to the water system consist in the application of the “water footprint” methodology to electricity generation technologies in the Italian context, focusing on aspects related to water scarcity.

The evaluation focuses on natural gas combined cycle plants. Finally, in order to promote the development of renewable energies, the functions of the SunRiSE web portal (http://sunrise.rse-web.it/) a tool for disseminating and visualizing measurements and forecasts of non-programmable renewable energy sources, have been extended. The portal has been enriched with new information layers related to forecasts of wind intensity, precipitation and air temperature. The total photovoltaic production forecasts for the market areas have been included and graphs showing the ground radiation measurements taken at the RSE headquarters in Milan during 2016 have been added.