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reports - Deliverable

Development of demand forecasting tools and residential load management systems

reports - Deliverable

Development of demand forecasting tools and residential load management systems

The research activity described in this report consists of the development of an energy management system that allows for the optimization of the energy consumption of an individual building; Machine Learning (ML) and Predictive Control (MPC) techniques are used for this. In addition, topics related to the development of the control system and its initial laboratory testing, collective self-consumption schemes, and participation of electric vehicles in flexibility services in the Dispatch Services Market were also analyzed.

The work described in this report is part of the research activities aimed at identifying efficient solutions capable of reducing primary energy consumption in complex “building-plant-utility” systems in the residential sector, especially with regard to small-scale air conditioning systems assisted by renewable sources. To this end, a three-year project has been undertaken to identify and experimentally validate solutions for building energy management that can adapt from time to time to changing system conditions through appropriate control techniques; such techniques should optimize consumption in different residential contexts with different comfort conditions, energy efficiency performance, climatic conditions, behaviors, and usage habits.


The work set forth in this report (covering the second year of activity) consists of the development of an energy management system called SEM – Smart Energy Manager. In particular, it is here described how the management system software was structured, what simplified physical models were implemented to reproduce the behavior of the building and the heat pump used to condition the building in both summer, and winter, and the first tests at the EffE (Energy Efficiency) Laboratory at the RSE headquarters in Piacenza.

The regulatory update regarding collective self-consumption schemes, which occurred with the publication of Italian Law No. 8/2020, is also presented, and a use case is described that involves the implementation of a condominium-level scheme within which the availability for real-time activation of users’ appliances is acquired, and remunerated. A subsequent topic discussed is the participation of electric vehicles in the provision of flexibility services on the Dispatch Services Market (DSM), a relevant issue following the publication of the “V2G Decree” (Italian Ministerial Decree January 30, 2020, “Criteria and modalities to foster integration between electric vehicles and the electricity grid”, Italian Official Gazette No. 37 of February 14, 2020). The case of DSM participation of a home charging infrastructure and the validation conducted in the PREVO (Evolved Prosumer) Laboratory are presented.

An additional important aspect of the management system is load forecasting, an issue that was addressed through the application of a load forecasting system on individual utilities.

The work described in this report is part of the efforts to find efficient solutions capable of reducing primary energy consumption in complex “building-plant-utility” systems in the residential sector, especially with regard to small-scale air conditioning systems supported by renewable sources. To this end, a three-year project has been undertaken to identify and experimentally validate solutions for building energy management that can adapt from time to time to changing system conditions through appropriate control techniques; such techniques should optimize consumption in different residential contexts with different comfort conditions, energy efficiency performance, climatic conditions, behaviors, and usage habits.
The work presented in this report, related to the second year of activity, consists of the development of an energy management system called SEM – Smart Energy Manager. Specifically, the report describes how the software for the management system was structured, which simplified physical models were implemented to replicate the behavior of the building and the heat pump used to climatize the building both in summer and in winter, and the initial tests conducted at the EffE (Energy Efficiency) Laboratory at the RSE headquarters in Piacenza.

Additionally, the report presents the updating of legislation concerning collective self-consumption schemes, following the publication of Law 8/2020, and describes a use case that involves the implementation of a condominium-level scheme in which the availability of users’ appliances for real-time activation is acquired and remunerated. Another topic covered is the participation of electric vehicles in the provision of flexibility services in the Dispatching Services Market (MSD), a relevant issue following the publication of the “V2G Decree” (Ministerial Decree of January 30, 2020, “Criteria and methods to promote the spread of integration technology between electric vehicles and the electricity grid,” Gazzetta Ufficiale of February 14, 2020, No 37). The case of participation in MSD of a domestic charging infrastructure and the validation conducted at the PREVO (PRosumer EVOluto) laboratory is presented. ).

Another important aspect of the management system is load forecasting, a topic addressed through the application of a load forecasting system for individual users.

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