The three-year objective of this study is to develop modeling tools to support energy system planning, which, by its nature, requires evaluations from technological, economic, political, and environmental perspectives. Specifically, this project aims to lay the foundation for developing a Harmonized Assessment Model (HAM) to evaluate energy strategies, with a particular focus on their impact on air quality at both national and regional levels. The harmonized modeling framework will consist of various interconnected modules (energy, emissions, air quality, impacts), each self-consistent but appropriately linked. The harmonization will be determined by the congruence of the different data sets provided as inputs to the various modules and the linking variables.

In the second year, activities related to the linking module between the energy and emissions models continued. The methodology was extended and applied to the thermoelectric generation sector, using two data sets employed by RSE: the TIMES-MONET model and the official inventory of Italian emissions from ISPRA. The comparison between the data sets allowed for the identification of a subset of 122 fossil-fuel-powered plants that could be individually modeled within the simplified model.

Following a thorough testing phase in the first year, which led to the conceptual formulation of the emissions-concentrations model, the second year saw the initial implementation on a national scale, focusing on the road transport and thermoelectric generation sectors. The model was tested on two sub-periods of 2017, representative of winter and summer meteorological conditions. The simplified model was validated by comparing it with the CAMx reference model in reconstructing a scenario of emission reductions. For all pollutants considered, the simplified model demonstrated remarkable accuracy in replicating the monthly average fields simulated by CAMx, with discrepancies consistently below 5% across the entire domain and in both seasons.

Work also began on the third element of the HAM, the module for estimating the impacts of air pollution, initially aimed at providing estimates of the impact of PM2.5 on mortality, expressed as Years of Life Lost (YOLL) and also evaluated in monetary terms. For both health impact estimation and their monetization, the study referred to the most established literature at the European level.

Finally, an in-depth study was conducted to develop a customized formulation of a simplified model for addressing point sources of thermoelectric generation. This work was carried out in collaboration with the FlexPlan project and focused on studying six Italian thermoelectric plants.

Based on the results obtained, the third year of the project will involve completing the development process, which will primarily include extending the linking module and the emissions-concentrations model to the domestic heating sector and fully integrating the impact and cost module within the modeling framework. Subsequently, a software code will be developed to coherently and user-friendly implement the various modules of the harmonized model, allowing for its application to selected cases of interest.