The project mainly aims to provide support to institutions on the evolution of the national electricity system. This report contains the results of the lines of activity concluded in the first year of the project.

Regarding the scenarios for the governance of the energy system, RSE’s support to the institutions in 2019 led to the creation of the final scenario in support of the PNIEC [the Italian Integrated Energy and Climate Plan]. Support was also provided for the definition of the Strategic Environmental Assessment within the same Plan. Also in 2019, the scenario support activity for the definition of the Long-Term Strategy (LTS) to 2050 was carried out. These activities involved direct participation in government committees (inter-ministerial and towards the European Commission). To develop the new scenarios, models for quantitative analyses were used, including in particular the new national model TIMES RSE. The continuous updating and development of the models is therefore an activity of the project.

Part of the research activities also concerned energy efficiency scenarios especially aimed at the industrial and civil sectors. The purpose is to evaluate the feasibility, potential and sustainability of efficiency interventions planned in energy-intensive sectors and to estimate the effectiveness of governance measures provided for to achieve decarbonization targets. These studies and analyses are useful to provide elements, assessments and tools to institutional decision-makers, to companies in order to optimize their performances, and to citizens for greater awareness and better management of their consumption.

Other activities supporting scenario formulation involved the collection of data up to 2025 on electricity generation and storage technologies (activity carried out with: IEA, Nuclear Energy Agency and Organization For Economic Co-operation and Development, also for the five-yearly publication ‘Projected Costs of Generating Electricity’) and the development of methodologies and hypotheses for the territorial distribution of new wind and PV capacities; these hypotheses were used for the PNIEC and LTS scenarios and for development forecasts of renewables at regional level.

WP 2 deals with the integration with environmental scenarios and intends to develop methodologies for the harmonization and integration of energy and environmental models, in order to create a Harmonized Assessment Model for the definition and evaluation of energy strategies, with particular reference to their impact on air quality at a national and regional scale. Furthermore, LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) evaluations are performed on current and 2030 scenarios of national electricity generation.

The project also includes two specific WPs dedicated to the analysis of the electricity system and markets; we highlight in particular the checks carried out on the cost-benefit analyses of the National Transmission Network Development Plan for the enhancement of the Sicilian very high voltage network, the development of methodologies to evaluate the evolution needs of the distribution network and the development of tools and models for the simulation of national and European electricity markets .

With regard to regulatory support activities, the strategic role of the System Research expressed through RSE activities has led to the establishment, in the PT, of an entire WP of the project dedicated to supporting ARERA [the Italian regulatory authority for energy networks and environment] in the innovative regulation and development of technical regulations. In fact, in addition to direct support to ARERA an important part of the WP, including on specific requests, is devoted to three activities related to the circular transition to explore their potential impacts on the national electricity-energy system.