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Evaluation of different PV power forecasting systems on grid-connected PV plants in the Mediterranean area

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#Photovoltaics #Renewable Energy

Publications - Paper

Evaluation of different PV power forecasting systems on grid-connected PV plants in the Mediterranean area

In this study, different probabilistic PV production forecasting systems for individual plants are compared and analyzed. Forecasting systems are based on the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) technique. They are verified on several Italian and Cypriot grid-connected plants.

The increasing penetration of renewable generation requires a deep transformation in power generation, transmission and distribution. The negative impact of renewables on the electric grid, due to their non-programmability, can be mitigated with reliable power forecasting systems. This study compares different PV production forecasting systems for the following two days with high temporal resolution (15 or 30 minutes). They are tested on three Mediterranean plants. This paper points out how different performances can be achieved according to model configuration, predictors used as input, climatic characteristics and size of the plant. A new approach, based on an optimal combination of various models, is also presented. Finally, the study highlights the importance of an accurate characterization of meteorological conditions in order to improve renewable power production forecasting.

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Rif.RSE​

19003645

Destination​

SyNERGY MED 2019 1st International Conference on Energy Transition in the Mediterranean Area, Cagliari, May 28-30, 2019

Publication Date

30 May 2019

Authors​

E. Collino, D. Ronzio, R. Bonanno (RSE S.p.A.), G. Partasides Energy Service, Office, Cyprus

Publication Type

Paper

Projects

High-efficiency photovoltaics (HighPerfPV)

Related tags

#Photovoltaics #Renewable Energy

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