In January 2021, the then Ministry of the Environment and Protection of Land and Sea published Italy’s long-term strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The document is the result of collaboration, initiated in 2019, among various Ministries and is largely based on studies and analyses by a technical working group that included ISPRA, RSE, GSE, Politecnico di Milano, ENEA, and CMCC. Each of the involved entities contributed their tools and expertise to analyze the broadest possible spectrum of implications of such a comprehensive strategic vision.

Particular importance is given to the analysis of expected emission trends in light of the insights gained from the historical data series available since 1990. This allows for highlighting existing trends, identifying the main drivers of emissions, and consequently gaining insight into which emissions will be the most difficult to reduce in order to achieve emission neutrality by 2050, the ultimate goal of the strategy. The analysis shows that the sectors that are currently the most emission-intensive are also those where significant reductions are already evident, thanks to the policies adopted so far and technological developments, while other sectors that are currently of lesser importance may become more problematic in the years to come. Based on current knowledge, it also appears that achieving neutrality will be challenging without carbon capture and storage systems, although much will depend on the capacity of natural absorptions and the evolution of the entire economic system.