The private transport sector has a negative impact on air quality, especially in areas with high population density. This work aims to evaluate the possible impacts of future mobility scenarios on a national scale through a modeling chain implemented ad hoc. In particular, it analyzes a Reference and a Decarbonization scenario developed within the PNIEC (National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan). The first module of the modeling chain is composed of an energy model that estimates the evolution of the fleet in circulation in the year 2030, after which a methodology is developed to remodulate the base case emissions in the field of private transport (2010). Starting from these emissions data, the atmospheric concentration of NO2, PM2.5 and O3 is then estimated using a chemistry and transport model and, starting from the variation in concentration between scenarios and base case, we can estimate the effectiveness of the scenario that impacts human health. Both scenarios involve an increase in mobility demand (18% for the Reference scenario) and at the same time a reduction in internal combustion vehicles in favor of a penetration of electric vehicles compared to the base case. This trend leads to an improvement in air quality especially for the Decarbonization Scenario, for which NO2 is reduced by up to 25% in some critical areas.