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Publications - ISI Article

Short-term uncertainty in the dispatch of energy resources for VPP: A novel rolling horizon model based on stochastic programming

Publications - ISI Article

Short-term uncertainty in the dispatch of energy resources for VPP: A novel rolling horizon model based on stochastic programming

An energy management system is proposed to optimize the market bidding strategy of a distributed resource aggregate for the day-ahead market and to control resources in real-time. To achieve this, an innovative stochastic optimization system with a rolling time window is proposed.

The intermittent nature of distributed energy resources introduces new levels of uncertainty in the operation of the power system; therefore, short-term decisions can no longer be fully deterministic. This article proposes an optimal energy exchange management system that optimizes participation in electricity markets and real-time operation of an aggregated distributed resource comprising photovoltaic generators, non-flexible loads, and energy storage systems (electric vehicles, stationary batteries, and thermal storage).

 

The market bidding strategy is optimized through a two-stage stochastic formulation, considering the uncertainty of day-ahead forecasts to minimize energy costs and make reserve margins available in the dispatch services market. Real-time resource management is achieved through an innovative stochastic programming model with a rolling time horizon.

 

It considers short-term uncertainties. Numerical simulations were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The architecture proved effective in managing numerous distributed resources and enabled the provision of ancillary services to the power system. Specifically, the developed model increased aggregate profits by up to 11% and reduced energy imbalance by 25.1% compared to deterministic optimization.

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