The report focuses on evaluating the future prices of electricity and natural gas for final consumers in a scenario of energy transition. The energy transition is an inevitable transformation of global energy systems towards decarbonization, with significant economic implications for industries and consumers.

The report takes the consumer’s point of view and aims to estimate the average energy prices in 2030 and beyond, considering not only generation costs but also system and infrastructure costs.

The estimates are based on the results of energy system development scenarios elaborated with the national energy model TIMES-RSE, including scenarios developed by RSE in collaboration with MASE, ISPRA, and GSE for the PNIEC. A peculiarity of the evaluation method is to address all components of the energy price in the bill, trying to understand how they might change in the considered scenario.

The evaluation does not limit itself to the assessment of total costs or to the average price per kWh but also tries to create a differentiated price scenario by type of consumers or consumption level.

The results show an increasing trend in gas prices, while for electricity prices, a non-homogeneous trend emerges both over time and among different categories of consumers. Therefore, a tendency towards decoupling between the prices of the two energy commodities is highlighted.

The Report is available on the Italian site