The report aims to describe the process to develop the new energy scenarios underpinning the proposal of update of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), sent by Italy to the European Commission at the end of June 2023. This analysis is part of the activities in support of the governance of the national energy system.

The update of the NECP, after the publication of the first version at the end of 2019, is foreseen by the European regulation 2018/1999, to be submitted in draft by June 2023 and in its final version by June 2024; the acceleration of the decarbonization path and the increase of the 2030 targets introduced with the Green Deal and applied with the issuing of the “Fit For 55” (July 2021) and “REPowerEU” (May 2022) packages, made the update even more necessary, especially considering recent events such as the Ukrainian war and its significant impact on the energy system at global, European and national levels.

The new energy scenarios trace the evolution of the Italian energy system both in terms of current policies and by considering additional policies and measures to achieve, or at least approach, the new 2030 constraints and targets on renewables, energy efficiency and emissions reduction.

The report is divided into two main parts: the first describes the methodological process and the hypotheses underlying the construction of the scenarios; the second illustrates the main energy results, with a time horizon up to 2040 while maintaining a focus on 2030.

The Report is available on the Italian site