The described activity concerns an analysis of the Italian power system aimed at technically and economically evaluating the impact of a potential future significant reduction in hydroelectric generation due to structural and climatic issues.
The evaluation is based on the results obtained from market simulations in a future scenario of the Italian power system, designed according to criteria derived from the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan for the year 2030 (PNIEC 2030).
The methodology followed is consistent with the “With & Without” approach adopted by European network operators for Cost-Benefit Analyses related to power system development.
The simulation tools used consist of calculation programs developed by RSE during System Research activities, primarily the sMTSIM and RUC programs.
This study is an update and extension of a preliminary one conducted during the System Research activities in 2018. It assessed the effect of a significant reduction in natural water inflows, usable reservoir volumes, and efficient capacities of Production Units in hydroelectric plants. This reduction was assumed to affect only northern Italy.
In addition to energy market evaluations, further analyses were carried out regarding the procurement of reserve requirements.
The energy market results showed increased fuel consumption, with a rise in costs of €419 million per year and an increase in CO2 emissions by 2.5 million tons per year. Concerning reserve margin procurement, there was an additional economic outlay of €1.4 million per year, with upward movements for 22 GWh/year, downward movements for 20 GWh/year, and new excess energy quantities of approximately 2 GWh/year.
Securing reserve margins did not present significant difficulties resulting from the reduced availability of hydroelectric resources. This is because the thermal power generation fleet, more heavily involved in the energy market, largely compensates for the reserve requirements. However, the new Unit Commitment, caused by the reduction in hydroelectric resources, leads to an increased reserve demand, which explains a substantial portion of the higher reserve procurement costs.