With the progressive manifestation of climate change impacts, the imperative to evaluate its consequences on energy systems arises. This study endeavors to forecast scenarios of renewable energy sources’ productivity in Italy, recognizing their pivotal role in the decarbonization process. In the current year, emphasis has been placed on wind energy productivity and water resource availability, supplementing prior research on photovoltaic productivity scenarios and the development of a methodology for estimating hydropower productivity.

Concerning wind energy, climate scenarios underwent updates, incorporating the RCP 2.6 emission scenario and utilizing the novel wind dataset AEOLIAN. The impact of wind turbine types was assessed, highlighting marginal dependence in comparison to that derived from climate models. Wind turbines maximizing productivity were selected for the majority of the Italian territory. Subsequently, scenarios of annual and seasonal wind energy productivity were formulated, considering the three different RCPs and analyzing variations in the short, medium, and long term.

The results suggest a decline in productivity by the end of the century, although increases in certain regions and seasons cannot be ruled out. Southern regions, especially on the Tyrrhenian side, are projected to experience the most substantial declines in productivity, particularly in the RCP 8.5 scenario, with annual reductions of up to 10% compared to the historical period. Additionally, high-resolution spatial variability of water resources at the end of the century was computed in response to three emission scenarios and six climate models.

There is a discernible dependence on the emission scenario, emphasizing the significance of mitigation measures for system stability: while the RCP 2.6 scenario indicates values at the end of the century consistent with historical ones, the RCP 8.5 scenario records substantial decreases, exceeding 50% in southern Italy and the islands. For evaluations at the individual plant level, a runoff model calibrated with a genetic algorithm was developed.

Results from a hypothetical case study in the RCP 8.5 climate scenario underscore the importance of mitigation measures at the plant level, with a hydropower plant witnessing a 50% reduction in its potential.

The Report is available on the Italian site