Page 81 - RSE - Results of the Apollon Project

Results of the APolloN PRoject ANd coNceNtRAtiNg PhotovoltAic PeRsPective

Although the CPV market forecast fgures differ between sources and change from year to year, all market
researchers are optimistic on the future of CPV and foresee a signifcant growth. This optimism is encouraged by
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recent news. On august 22 2013, SolarJunction and IQE announced a new world record of 44.1% effciency for their
dilute-nitrides based triple junction cells, certifed by NREL . Just one day before Amonix announced a world record
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module effciency of 35.9% (DNI 1000 W/m , Tcell 25°C), also certifed by NREL .
Soitec is building a 44 MWp plant in Touwsrivier (South Africa) and has signed projects for 300 MWp in the
United States. The Cogentrix 30 MW commissioning of modules produced by Amonix is achieving power production
at or above contract agreements. Suncore is working on a 50 MW plant in Golmud, China.
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In spite of the optimistic view for CPV, EPIA in its Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2013-2017 deals with
all types of PV and in that context CPV is presented as a minor technology, with a predicted PV-market share of 1%
in 2017. Even among the non-c-Si technologies that are predicted to account for 19% of the PV-market by 2017, the
CPV-production capacity will be small as compared to High-Effciency PV, a-Si, CdTe and CGIS. The reasons why CPV
is still regarded as a niche market are the following:

p CPV technology can process only the Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI). Consequently CPV is competitive only
in very sunny and dry areas with high DNI and low diffuse sun-light. Areas with a value of DNI >6 kWh/
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m /day are indicated as the target market . This would exclude almost the entire European Mediterranean
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region;
p CPV-installations cost more than traditional fxed c-Si fat-plate installations: euros/Wp installed are higher
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for CPV (+33% according to ). This has to be compensated by their higher effciency;
p CPV only works with a precise sun-tracking. These tracking systems are less suitable for roof-top mounting
and therefore the CPV target market is mainly on ground-mounted systems;
p an additional problem for CPV is the perceived lack of bankability which drives up the cost of fnancing /
insurance and hence the Levelized Cost Of Energy. Historical track records are necessary to convince fnanc-
ers, but being a relatively new technology, CPV-companies still have diffculties in providing such records.

Competitiveness is a Real Challenge for CPV

In the second half of the year 2012 several companies reduced, reorganized or halted their activities in the CPV-
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sector. These companies include Amonix Inc. , Greenvolts and its fnancer ABB , Semprius and its partner Siemens ,
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Solfocus and its investment partners and several smaller companies. The main reason for these diffculties is
indicated to be the low prices for silicon-based fat modules which make CPV competitiveness a real challenge.
According to Edward Cahill from Lux Research, HCPV could be competitive with c-Si within perhaps 6 years
if cost reductions in terms of large-scale production can be achieved. A newly launched CPV company faces high
capital expenditure and the challenge is to fnd investment partners that are big enough and diversifed enough to
sustain the fnancial burden of the long-term development of HCPV and to bridge the 5 to 6 year period required for
the new company to establish itself and to become self-sustaining .
According to Nikolai Dobrott of Apricum, the future of the CPV-industry greatly depends on Soitec and on how
the large-scale plants of Soitec, Amonix and Suncore will perform. With its large pipeline Soitec has the unique
opportunity to lower the cost for installing and maintaining CPV-systems thanks to the economy of scale.
The main challenge in CPV-research is to increase effciency and to lower costs so that the technology can be
competitive.

39 www.i-micronews.com/news/Solar-Junction-surpasses-previous-World-Record-certifed-44,10855.html.
40 www.i-micronews.com/news/Amonix-achieves-record-35-9-module-effciency-rating-NREL,10852.html.
41 www.epia.org/news/publications/global-market-outlook-for-photovoltaics-2013-2017/.
42 www.cpvconsortium.org/Portals/0/Board/CPVC-Altaterra-Webcast.pdf.
43 www.luxresearchinc.com/images/stories/Press_Releases/ RELEASE_Solar_Systems_6_26_12.pdf.
44 http://optics.org/news/3/7/40.
45 www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/greenvolts-halts-operations_100008474/#axzz2chK7IhZB.
46 http://gigaom.com/2012/10/22/the-solar-saga-continues-siemens-fees-solar-market/.
47 www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/11/cpv-pioneer-solfocus-up-for-sale.

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