This study aims to investigate the frequency variations of Rossby wave packets and atmospheric blocking events, which are of great interest as precursors to extreme weather events. These atmospheric configurations, whose evolutions can be dynamically linked, were studied using established methodologies applied to ERA5 reanalysis and 10 CMIP6 models. After verifying the ensemble performance of the models in reconstructing the historical period from 1986 to 2005 compared to ERA5 climatology, future variations in the short term (2021 – 2040) and long term (2081 – 2100) were analyzed on a seasonal scale for the “business as usual” ssp585 scenario.

Despite a general underestimation by CMIP6 models in calculating the frequency of Rossby wave packets and blocking events, this study identified some areas more likely to be affected by changes in these atmospheric structures linked to climate change in the northern hemisphere. Specifically, some long-term change signals are expected. The results highlight a significant increase in the frequency of wave packets and a slight increase in atmospheric blocking events over Eastern Europe and neighboring Asian regions, with a significant reduction in blocks over Greenland, parts of the Pacific, and northwestern Europe in winter.

An increase in Rossby wave packets is expected in spring over Europe and western Asia, while a decrease is anticipated for other seasons/regions. There is no clear climatic signal regarding the evolution of blocking events in the summer season.