Heavy snowfalls can have serious effects on the national transmission and distribution network, as they can trigger the formation of ice sleeves on overhead lines. The weight of these sleeves can cause failures and consequently disruptions to the power supply. Future projections of ice sleeve loads on high-voltage overhead lines were developed using 12 high-resolution Euro-CORDEX climate models (~12km spatial resolution) under RCP8.5 emissions scenarios (Business-As-Usual). These projections provide the necessary information for action plans aimed at strengthening the resilience of the grid.

Additionally, the MERIDA reanalysis was used to apply bias correction to climate data using the Equidistant Quantile Mapping technique and to implement and validate the Makkonen model, which describes the growth of ice sleeves on a cylindrical conductor. After comparing the modeling results with observations and the multi-model scenario with reanalysis data in the reference period, future projections were developed for the periods 2021-2040, 2031-2050, 2041-2060. Using Generalized Extreme Values, probability maps of ice sleeves at different intensity levels were produced. The results highlight that wet-snow events are expected to decrease, as precipitation increasingly transitions from snow to rain due to global warming.

Conversely, these phenomena may intensify in higher Alpine regions, where temperatures under warmer climate conditions more frequently fall within the typical range for wet snow.