In a context of energy transition, where meeting the 2030 goals puts the focus on the growth of renewables, new market players, and a greater integration between European countries, it is necessary to plan for the evolution of the electricity market design. Italy is the only European country in which buyers (except for pumping) are subject to a single purchase price, called PUN (Prezzo Unico Nazionale) or National Single Price, regardless of the area in which they are located. In this report, the assessments (requested from RSE as required by Art. 13 of Legislative Decree 210/2021) regarding a possible overshoot of the PUN as of 2025 are presented.

To this end, a historical analysis was first carried out, both from a statistical point of view and by means of a methodology. This was done in order to compare the results of the Italian market with PUN with those of a theoretical purely zonal market. The analysis was developed using models already present in RSE, whose level of accuracy allows them to replicate historical results.

Next, the impact on electricity markets of changes in the generation technology mix due to the growth of renewable energy sources, the prospects for the development of active demand participation in markets, and the development of networks was assessed. To carry out this analysis, assumptions on the evolution of the national electricity system were defined and scenarios and sensitivities on specific drivers were developed to assess the impact of these assumptions on zonal prices at target years 2025 and 2030. The analysis was conducted by applying a methodology that calculates the average annual price and its hourly curve in dependence on the operation of gas-fired plants.

The results show that while Sicily has experienced higher zonal prices than other market zones in the past, benefiting from the presence of the PUN, the scenario analysis shows that, thanks to the strong penetration of renewable sources and the development of the transmission grid, Sicily would benefit more from purchasing energy at a zonal price, being, in fact, one of the zones with a lower price.
Conversely, consumers in the Northern zone have historically had higher outlays in the presence of the PUN than would have occurred by paying at zonal prices; in contrast, they would benefit from the presence of the PUN in the future because the Northern zone is expected to experience higher prices than other zones.