The decarbonization of energy systems, underway at both the European and national levels, is substantially affecting the electricity system. In the future, distribution networks will need to be able to integrate a greater share of distributed generation (DG) and load (e.g., electric vehicles) and to exploit these resources for local flexibility services. The study of possible development scenarios and the new potential that network control will have to acquire is, therefore, preparatory to the evolution of planning tools and the operation of distribution networks.

The activity aims to develop methodologies to conduct analysis, with local detail, starting from the large-scale evolution scenario. The detailed study on the electricity grid—conducted in collaboration with Unareti (electricity distributor in the Milan, Brescia and Alto Garda area)—aims to identify, under different alternative scenarios, the potential critical issues and their consequences on the planning of the electricity grid, considering also the potential benefits from local flexibility services.

This report presents the development and application of a suitable methodology to define projected 2030 distribution network development scenarios, with a focus on end-use electrification and penetration of electric vehicles and DG based on Renewable Energy Sources (RES). This deliverable illustrates new hypotheses developed to enable evolution scenarios to be modeled in greater detail, particularly those related to heat pumps for heating/cooling and charging systems for electric vehicles.

The analysis addresses an urban network with high load density (Milan) and, with greater detail, is extended to a significant subnetwork, as examples of refinement of the procedure.

The report highlights the effects on network components and the general characteristics of the violations identified, in order to support network planning by providing essential data for evaluating the use of power flexibility as an alternative to traditional network reinforcement.