The National Energy System is already under stressful conditions today as a result of extreme meteorological events, but it will face even more challenges in the coming decades due to climate change.
To support the planning of interventions aimed at strengthening the resilience of the System, some climate analyses were conducted in Italy using 12 Euro-CORDEX models (12 km resolution) to estimate the expected changes under three different socio-economic development scenarios, as described by the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP8.5 (continuous increase in greenhouse gases with no mitigation), RCP4.5 (partial mitigation) and RCP2.6 (strong decrease in greenhouse gases).
After filtering the models with limited performance in the reconstruction of the current climate, multi-model scenarios at a seasonal scale were developed for the reference period (1971-2000), as well as for the short (2021-2050), medium (2041-2070) and long term (2071-2100). The analysis concerned first of all gradual climate changes, then the climatic extremes on the basis of specific indices of the World Meteorological Organization: SUmmer days, Consecutive SUmmer days, TRopical nights, Frost Days, Consecutive Frost Days, Consecutive Dry Days, Extreme Precipitations, Extreme Winds and HeatWaves. Finally, a multi-risk analysis was carried out to identify the areas most likely to be affected by particularly critical situations such as dry periods (Droughts), strong thunderstorms and floods (Storms), scorching days with water scarcity (Hotdays) and, more in general, areas affected by extreme precipitation, strong winds, heat waves and dry conditions (Multi-hazards). The climate extremes analysis included an examination of probability/return time maps obtained by applying the Generalized Extremes Values technique to the variables temperature, precipitation and wind.
No area of the Italian territory will be free from an intensification of extreme weather events. The most critical situations will affect: Valpadana and southern Italy, with scorching days and dry periods not only in summer; coastal areas, with heavy flooding; the Alpine regions with significant changes in rainfall regime. These conditions will get worse in the coming decades, especially in the RCP8.5 configuration starting in the short term, while they will be more contained in the RCP4.5 and even more limited in the RCP2.6 hypothesis.