The scenarios developed as part of the ongoing project to define the national decarbonisation path include extremely ambitious objectives for wind and photovoltaic power, which require thorough assessment of the actual possibility of installing these plants in the Italian territory, since these generation technologies require large spaces.

To this end, calculation methodologies were developed which, starting from an analysis of existing installed data and land use on a national scale, allow for the creation of scenarios where objectives are distributed by region based on locally available land and the different uses allowed for it.

The usefulness of these simulations increases as the accuracy increases of the knowledge of the initial framework in terms of location of existing installed power and quantitative description of land use.

First, this report presents input data updating activities, which are necessary to improve the initial information framework, and then also presents the results of the distribution simulations of both the objectives envisaged by the final version of the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan and those discussed for establishing the decarbonisation path of the Long Term Strategy. The results highlight evident criticalities, in particular regarding the objectives connected to the Long Term Strategy, which in the most extreme scenarios envisage the installation of photovoltaic systems of up to 273 GW by 2050, compared a current installed capacity of around 20 GW; another criticality is the high pressure onshore wind objectives (31 GW) put on certain regions. In the absence of innovations capable of profoundly modifying the territorial footprint of current technologies, it will obviously be necessary to resort to compromise solutions between different uses that mitigate the extensive occupation of the territory. In relation to this, a study has been launched on the potential of floating photovoltaics in the Italian territory, as well as a state of the art installation of photovoltaic systems in the agricultural sector (agrivoltaic).