Climate change will have effects on all infrastructure, including the energy system. Thermal warming, the increasing risk of flooding and other possible threats are putting at risk a safe and efficient energy supply with serious economic and social impacts.

To facilitate an integrated analysis of future impacts and vulnerabilities, new climate scenarios for Italy have been developed based on high resolution (~12 km) EURO-CORDEX climate models under the RCP 8.5 radiative forcing hypothesis.

The scenarios have been characterized at a seasonal scale, comparing the current climate (1971-2000) with short (FUT1=2021-2050), medium (FUT2=2041-2070) and long (FUT3=2071-2100) term scenarios .

Without mitigation actions, the most significant results indicate warming of about 2°C in the next decades, 3°C by the middle of the century, and more than 5°C in the final thirty years. Furthermore, a reduction in precipitation of between 10-20% is expected by 2050, up to 50% by the end of the century.

Hot days and floods show a worrying increase; with regards to floods, the risk will depend on the season and the area.

Regarding wet snow events, the signal indicates a decrease in frequency in the Apennine regions. The signal is more confident in the Alpine regions, where more frequent events are expected over the course of the century.